Corn makes a moderate move higher.
Soybeans and most wheat contracts also firm on Friday
Grain prices were mixed but mostly higher on Friday as traders continue to assess the state of Russia/Ukraine tensions and South American weather forecasts, which have consistently been the two biggest price drivers this week. Corn prices closed with gains of nearly 0.75%, while soybean prices firmed around 0.5% today. Wheat prices were mixed but mostly higher, with Kansas City HRW contracts showing the most upside after tracking more than 1% higher.
The latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA suggests that most of the Northern Plains, upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region will get some additional rain and/or snow between Saturday and Tuesday. The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook expects seasonally dry weather to reemerge across the Midwest and Plains between February 25 and March 3, with widespread colder-than-normal conditions across most of the country likely during that time.
On Wall St., the Dow dropped another 51 points lower to 34,260, with the threat of a Russian invasion into Ukraine remaining the top concern for investors today. Investors are also bracing for multiple interest rate hikes later this year. Energy prices were mixed. Nearby crude oil contracts slid 0.75% lower to stay just above $91 per barrel. Diesel dipped slightly, with gasoline up around 0.75%. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
On Thursday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+1,000), soybeans (+1,500), soymeal (+500) and CBOT wheat (+10,000) contracts but were net sellers of soyoil (-1,750) yesterday.
NOTE: Grain markets will be closed on Monday, February 21, in observance of Presidents’ Day. Also, USDA reports (i.e. grain inspections, export sales, etc.) will come out one day later than usual next week. Come back first thing Tuesday for a new batch of market news and analysis from Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland.
Corn
Corn prices rose moderately higher as traders engaged in some technical buying and short-covering ahead of an extended holiday weekend. Relatively tight domestic supplies and worries over South American production have kept the current bullish sentiment alive and thriving. March futures added 4.75 cents to $6.5475, with May futures up 4 cents to $6.5325.
Corn basis bids remained mostly steady across the central U.S. on Friday but did firm 2 cents higher at an Illinois river terminal today.
A farmers group in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso are in discussions with Iran to directly export as much as 196.8 million bushels of corn to buyers there. As part of the deal, Iranian suppliers would commit to providing fertilizer to Brazilian farmers. “These talks represent an opportunity for a new business model of direct trade between Iran and growers in Mato Grosso,” according to the group.
USDA just launched its first trade mission since November 2019 as nearly 40 representatives traveled to the United Arab Emirates this week. U.S. agricultural exports to UAE has seen a five-year average of $1.2 billion, with plenty of potential for additional growth. “We’re excited that there’s interest in a broad range of products that American agriculture can be very successful in and not just in the UAE, but the region as a whole,” according to FAS administrator Daniel Whitley. Farm Futures policy editor Jacqui Fatka offers additional details here.
If it’s been a few days since you’ve ventured to FarmFutures.com, our Friday feature “7 ag stories you might have missed” is one way to quickly catch up with some of the ag industry’s top headlines. The latest round of content includes stories on some untimely flooding in Brazil, a new batch of award-winning farmers, a drone research project from Purdue University and more. Click here to get started.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 342,595 contracts, trending moderately higher than Thursday’s final count of 263,265.
Soybeans
Soybean prices closed above $16 per bushel for the first time since last May after another round of technical buying lifted prices another 0.5% higher Friday. Spillover strength from corn lent a bit of support, but South American production concerns was the chief reason prices improved today. March futures rose 9.5 cents to $16.0150, with May futures up 7.5 cents to $16.0350. Soyoil prices also firmed 1% higher, with soymeal prices down around 0.5%.
Soybean basis bids firmed a penny at an Illinois river terminal and improved 2 cents at an Ohio elevator while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Friday.
Private exporters announced the sale of 7.3 million bushels of soybeans to unknown destinations. One third of that total is for delivery during the current marketing year, which began September 1, with the remainder for delivery in 2022/23.
India is making unprecedented levels of soyoil purchases from the United States, with traders recently signing deals to import 100,000 metric tons. India also purchased 30,000 MT of soyoil from the Black Sea Region. Palm oil out of Indonesia is seen as prohibitively expensive right now, and South American soyoil supplies are in doubt due to ongoing drought there.
Here’s a hypothetical for you. If you did an HTA contract for November soybeans this spring, and in the fall you wanted to roll it out to May, what would that May HTA price be? Grain market analyst Roger Wright walks through that scenario in today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 236,545 contracts, falling just short of Thursday’s final count of 237,102.
Wheat
Wheat prices were mixed but mostly higher after a mixed round of technical maneuvering on Friday. Geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea Region have very few silver linings, but it is creating a bullish environment for U.S. wheat prices right now due to potential export disruptions overseas. Today, March Chicago SRW futures faded 4.25 cents to $7.9375, March Kansas City HRW futures rose 9.5 cents to $8.3250, and March MGEX spring wheat futures picked up 2.5 cents to $9.5975.
Farm office FranceAgriMer reported that 95% of the country’s soft wheat crop is in good-to-excellent condition through February 14, holding steady from a week ago. Growing conditions have been kind to France’s winter barley crop, which is rated 94% in good-to-excellent condition.
Taiwan purchased around 2.0 million bushels of milling wheat sourced from the United States in a tender that closed earlier today. The grain is for shipment between April 4 and April 18.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 117,551 CBOT contracts, slipping slightly below Thursday’s final count of 123,870.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Mar
658
647
654.25
4.75
22-May
656.75
646
652.75
4
Soybeans
22-Mar
1608.5
1587.5
1601.5
9.5
22-May
1611
1590
1603.5
7.5
Soymeal $/ton
22-May
452.3
444.7
445.7
-2.5
Soyoil cents/lb
22-May
67.87
66.53
67.61
0.68
Wheat $/bushel
22-Mar
812.25
790
797
-4.25
22-May
818.75
797
804
-4.5
KC Wheat
22-Mar
850
815.75
835.25
9.5
22-May
854.5
820.25
840
9.5
MPLS Wheat
22-Mar
970.25
955
960.75
2.5
22-May
970.75
954.75
961.25
2.75
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Feb
143.55
143.075
143.2
-0.2
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Apr
171.5
170.35
170.825
-0.325
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-Apr
113.375
112.025
113.35
2.025
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Mar
92.66
89.03
91.23
-0.53
Diesel
22-Mar
2.7974
2.7147
2.7832
-0.003
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Mar
2.6806
2.5865
2.6724
0.0238
Natural Gas
22-Apr
4.585
4.306
4.364
-0.066
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Mar
96.175
95.725
96.04
0.237
Gold $/ounce
22-Mar
1903.5
1887.5
1896.7
-4
Copper
22-Feb
4.525
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 02/18)
DAP Tampa-index
835.0
25
DAP-New Orleans
837.8
33
Urea-New Orleans
584.2
-22
Urea-Middle East
600.0
-65
Urea-Black Sea
550.0
-110
UAN (32%) New Orleans
606.3
0
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