Morning report: Corn edges lower and soybeans mixed amid harvest pressures. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)
Corn down 1-5 cents
Soybeans mixed; Soymeal up $0.20/ton; Soyoil down $1.03/lb
Chicago wheat down 10-12 cents; Kansas City wheat down 8-10 cents; Minneapolis wheat down 9-11 cents
*Prices as of 6:50am CDT.
Feedback from the Field updates! How is harvest progressing on your farm this fall?! Click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s harvest progress. I review and upload results daily to the FFTF Google(TM) MyMap, so farmers can see others’ responses from across the country – or even across the county!
Corn
After closing just shy of the $7/bushel benchmark yesterday, December 2022 corn futures continued to trade flat at that level this morning. Other nearby contracts traded $0.01-$0.05/bushel lower on harvest pressure. Prices had traded slightly higher overnight as rains forecasted for the Midwest later this week threaten to slow harvest progress in the region.
Today’s market activity will largely depend on weather forecasts for the upcoming week which are to be reconciled with USDA’s anticipated weekly harvest rates expected later this afternoon. As of October 3, 20% of U.S. corn had been harvested, a value that was lower than what market analysts had been expecting leading up to the report’s release last week.
USDA releases updated crop progress data today, a day delayed due to yesterday’s federal holiday observance. Today’s report will be largely focused on harvest progress for corn and soybeans as well as sowing and emergence rates for winter wheat. Favorable (warm and dry) weather across the Heartland last week bodes strongly for rapid harvest paces in today’s reports though it continues to be a limiting factor for winter wheat development as the Plains remain excessively dry.
Soybeans
Soybean prices traded mixed this morning. Similar to corn, harvest pressure pushed nearby contracts for the 2022 crop down $0.01-$0.03/bushel. New crop futures prices (Sep&Nov23 contracts) traded $0.01-$0.02/bushel higher while most deferred contracts traded flat.
Soybean prices are increasingly influenced by planting progress in Brazil, where the country is expecting to harvest its largest crop on record this year. Brazilian ag consultancy AgRural estimates 9.6% of the country’s crop has been planted, which lags behind last year’s pace of 10.1% during the same time frame.
Weather patterns continue to be erratic in the South American country, which is also bracing for a third consecutive growing of La Ni?a weather patterns. Expect Brazilian weather forecasts to increasingly drive price action in the soybean markets over the next couple months.
Markets are also bracing for tomorrow’s October 2022 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Pre-report trade estimates are forecasting larger soybean acres in tomorrow’s report, which explains some of this morning’s bearish price action for nearby futures contracts.
Wheat
Chicago wheat prices notched a three-month high during yesterday’s trading session, but the profit-takers were standing by during the overnight trading session, eager to cash in on the highs. U.S. wheat prices fell $0.07-$0.12/bushel on the sentiment. The dollar weakened overnight and ongoing concerns about Black Sea wheat corridors capped losses in the wheat market this morning.
“Russia-Ukraine war escalation is raising doubts over wheat supplies, which is supporting prices,” a Sydney-based agricultural commodities analyst told Reuters overnight. “But we think, Russia has a big crop to sell and it will go hard on exports.”
Ukraine is rallying its forces to respond to Russia’s recent partial military mobilization, though a growing Russian spring wheat harvest and more abundant export supplies – due in large part to Russia’s illegal acquisition of Ukrainian territory – are posing some bearish threats to wheat prices this morning.
Weather
It’s likely to be another warm day across the Heartland, with highs reaching the 80s and 90s across most of the Plains and Southeast and topping out in the 70s elsewhere in the Midwest, according to NOAA’s short-term forecasts. That forecast should help to accelerate maturation speeds and keep combines running at a steady clip in the coming days.
Light showers are expected to fall in the Lake Michigan and Upper Mississippi River Valley regions over the next 24 hours, with the upper half of Illinois expected to see the largest accumulation (up to an inch) during that time.
Cooler temperatures are finally expected to settle into the Midwest through the end of the month. NOAA’s 6-10-day outlook is showing cooler temperature probabilities for continental region to the east of the Mississippi River, though chances for perception continue to hover below average for much of the Upper Midwest during that time. The 8-14-day outlook is trending similarly cooler though precipitation probabilities are forecast near normal levels across much of the Heartland except the Upper Midwest, which is expected to remain slightly drier during that time.
Financials
S&P 500 futures fell 0.51% this morning to $3,606.75 at last glance, continuing yesterday’s selloff after the latest bailout measures from the Bank of England to salvage its bond markets continued to ripple through the global financial system. If the morning’s losses hold, it will be the fifth consecutive trading session of losses for the S&P 500 index.
This week marks the first week of third quarter earnings season reports. “First-quarter and second-quarter earnings came in remarkably well. The third quarter may be the pivot point at which we see earnings cannot keep growing to the sky, and that companies are subject to the economic headwinds we are facing from all kinds of directions,” David Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US, told the Wall Street Journal this morning.
Inflation data in the form of updated Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports are expected on Thursday that will provide the latest insights about whether or not recent Federal Reserve interest rate hikes are having a significant – if any – impact on cooling inflationary pressures.
Profit takers appeared to be taking advantage of the recent run-up in energy prices this morning. OPEC+’s announcement late last week that the group of the world’s largest oil producers would be cutting production schedules by 2 million barrels/day sent Brent crude oil futures prices to a brief six-week high during yesterday’s trading session, only to see gains erased over the last 24 hours on looming global demand concerns.
Nerd alert: Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was one of the Nobel laureates for the Economics prize announced yesterday. Bernanke, Douglas Diamond, and Philip Dybvig were awarded the prize for not only their theoretical work on financial crises, but also the real-life application of such theories. As an economist – and a fan of Bernanke’s – I was thrilled to see this award announced yesterday!
What else I’m reading this morning on our website, FarmFutures.com:
Water Street Solution’s Darren Frye asks farmers – what is your definition of a successful farm?
Bryce Knorr explains why harvest lows could already be at play in the markets.
Roger Wright encourages growers to consider multiple marketing strategies for unpriced soybeans.
Matthew Kruse evaluates recent big rains in Brazil and the effects of the Brazilian election on the country’s soybean prices.
USDA urges guaranteed lenders to hold off on foreclosures while the agency awaits final details on distress loan assistance.
Morning Ag Commodity Prices – 10/11/2022
Contract
Units
High
Low
Last
Net Change
% Change
DEC ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.02
6.9425
6.9875
0.005
0.07%
MAR ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.0775
6.9975
7.045
-0.0025
-0.04%
MAY ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.0825
7.005
7.055
-0.0025
-0.04%
JUL ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.015
6.94
6.985
-0.005
-0.07%
SEP ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.5025
6.455
6.49
-0.0025
-0.04%
DEC ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.34
6.28
6.32
-0.015
-0.24%
AR2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.4
6.35
6.35
-0.0475
-0.74%
AY2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.4
6.38
6.4
-0.0175
-0.27%
JUL ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.345
6.33
6.33
-0.0425
-0.67%
NOV ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.8275
13.6525
13.7175
-0.0225
-0.16%
JAN ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.945
13.77
13.8375
-0.02
-0.14%
MAR ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.0425
13.8675
13.9325
-0.02
-0.14%
MAY ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.1225
13.9525
14.025
-0.01
-0.07%
JUL ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.165
13.9975
14.065
-0.0125
-0.09%
AUG ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.025
13.8875
13.95
-0.005
-0.04%
SEP ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.71
13.6825
13.71
0.015
0.11%
NOV ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.675
13.5525
13.6
0.01
0.07%
AN2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.6825
#N/A
13.62
0
0.00%
AR2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
11.5
#N/A
13.5675
0
0.00%
AY2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
13.55
0
0.00%
OCT ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
0
#N/A
69.54
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
66.38
64.72
64.95
-1.11
-1.68%
OCT ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
0
#N/A
410.7
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
407.3
404.2
405.4
-0.3
-0.07%
JAN ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
403.3
400.9
402
0.2
0.05%
MAR ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
398.8
396.8
397.4
0.3
0.08%
MAY ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
397.2
395.3
396.2
0.7
0.18%
DEC ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
9.3675
9.14
9.2525
-0.1275
-1.36%
MAR ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
9.5025
9.295
9.3975
-0.1175
-1.23%
MAY ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
9.5425
9.3425
9.4425
-0.1175
-1.23%
JUL ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
9.3775
9.19
9.275
-0.1275
-1.36%
SEP ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
9.305
9.12
9.2175
-0.12
-1.29%
DEC ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
9.31
9.1125
9.2125
-0.1225
-1.31%
AR2 ’24 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
9.235
9.2
9.2
-0.07
-0.76%
DEC ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
10.2175
10.04
10.1375
-0.105
-1.03%
MAR ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
10.17
10.0075
10.1025
-0.1025
-1.00%
MAY ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
10.125
9.9625
10.0575
-0.1025
-1.01%
JUL ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.9375
9.8
9.81
-0.15
-1.51%
SEP ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.82
9.75
9.77
-0.065
-0.66%
DEC ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.75
9.75
9.75
-0.0575
-0.59%
AR2 ’24 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
9.7175
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
10.1375
9.9425
10.0475
-0.095
-0.94%
MAR ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
10.1425
10.005
10.04
-0.145
-1.42%
MAY ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
10.1175
10.065
10.1075
-0.1025
-1.00%
JUL ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
10.1075
10.0625
10.1075
-0.0475
-0.47%
SEP ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.7
9.7
9.7
-0.0175
-0.18%
DEC ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
9.65
0
0.00%
AR2 ’24 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
0
0
0.00%
DEC ’21 ICE Dollar Index
$
113.47
112.765
112.82
-0.251
-0.22%
NO ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
91.35
88.46
89.27
-1.86
-2.04%
DE ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
90.15
87.28
88.09
-1.75
-1.95%
NOV ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.8745
3.6941
3.7569
-0.1578
-4.03%
DEC ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.6583
3.5028
3.544
-0.1463
-3.96%
NOV ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.6269
2.5792
2.5995
-0.0233
-0.89%
DEC ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.4917
2.4437
2.462
-0.0289
-1.16%
OCT ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
172.1
0
0.00%
NOV ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
172.875
0
0.00%
CT2 ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
144.7
0
0.00%
DE ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
147
0
0.00%
OCT ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
93.75
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
79.6
0
0.00%
OCT ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
21.97
21.88
21.97
0.05
0.23%
NOV ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
21.47
21.45
21.47
0.07
0.33%
DEC ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
21.14
20.98
20.98
-0.14
-0.66%
